Behavior and information model to yield more accurate probability of successful outcome

BEHAVIOR AND INFORMATION MODEL TO YIELD A MORE ACCURATE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME

A report indicating a user-reported probability of a successful outcome is received. A behavior and information model is estimated based on the report. The behavior and information model includes a behavior model component having a bias parameter and a consistency parameter. The behavior and information model includes an information model component having a first user-believed probability of a successful outcome and a second user-believed probability of a successful outcome. The behavior and information model is used to yield a model-determined probability of a successful outcome that more accurately reflects a probability of a successful outcome than the user-reported probability of a successful outcome does.

history | excerpt history